Monday, September 20, 2010



10 obstacles which have been preventing new war on Iran:





In previous post I mentioned that there are warning signs that might put us in new trouble. new war , some believe with current Iranian government's recalcitrant behavior toward international community specially united nation security council's resolutions war is inevitable , others believe new war will demolish shaky peace in middle east and no one should consider military option against Iran, but till collision point , there are a lot of obstacles which have been preventing war until now. Here are those obstacles:

  1. China : as a new world power has a lot of interests in relation with Iran , because of its energy hunger economy  , from the beginning of Islamic republic era , both had great economic transactions , but now china is not only using Iran as a energy resource and its intact market  but  using it as bargaining chip for the balance of power as well , in one side it is voting against Iran in favor of US ( to maintain American companies investments  and US government's silence about human rights in china,etc  ) , and in other side it is taking advantages of sanctions by using tremendous concessions that are given by Iranian regime to it , in the lack of other trading partners ( that are banned to trade with Iran by UNSC permanent members vote like china)  it is obvious that china will resist every options that jeopardizes its benefits like preemptive attack on Iran . 
  2. Russia : history of relationships between Iran and Russia is always full of ups and downs , Islamic revolution was  challenging soviet union in central Asia's Muslim countries and specially in Afghanistan for years .But after the fall of hammer and sickle flag , Russia's new administration realized the importance of strong relationship with Iran , so they have been selling armaments to Iran so far and they keep Iran as a key ally in contradiction and the balance of power against  US ,like china ,for the Russians , loss of Islamic republic is like of yielding middle east to their old time enemy, US.
  3. Iran's proxies in middle east , Lebanon , Hezbollah : a shitte group which is supplying by Syria and particularly Iran , Hezbollah is claiming that they are resisting Israeli's  occupation and aggression .despite allegations the fact is ,it  has Irrefragable  popularity in Lebanon ,each attack on iran indubitably will endanger Israel .
  4. Iran's proxies in middle east , Palestine , Hamas  : after parliament election in 2006 hamas gained legal power in Palestine but controversial conflicts with  Palestinian authority leaded to concentrating of hamas group in Gaza strip , Iran is one of few countries which are supporting Gaza , hamas , and annihilating of Islamic republic will permit hamas to cross the borders and also lines .
  5. Iranian military: Iran is totally different from Iraq or Afghanistan, in case of military capabilities Iran is so strong that some experts analogize war on Iran to the beginning of wwIII ,  abundance of man power and natural resources  and longtime investments in military industries have made Iran a major manufacturer of weapons specially sophisticated missile systems in the region. Iran always threatens that every attack will be responded by Iranian's intense retaliation.
  6. US economic deficit and recession: each unsuccessful strike on Iran or Iran's nuclear facilities may conclude to collapse of stock markets and US economy; cost of new war may force US taxpayers to rebellion.
  7. Muslim countries reaction against war on iran : so far muslim's pride was trampled twice ( Iraq , Afghanistan ) by US and NATO and new war will make Muslims all around the world Sympathizing with Iran and it could lead to terrorist attacks .
  8. Public opinions ; united states government's reputation in public opinions inside US and outside now, is  cynical and aggressive and new war will defame it , and will disappoint  US citizens from president Obama's change slogan ,even more.
  9. Oil: historians believe current human being's misery is because of Oil ,Iran as a second exporter of Opec oils ,plays a major role in oil pricing, each war definitely will rise oil price even to two hundred dollars per each barrel , if Iran's threat of blocking of strait of hurmoz in Persian Gulf with US possible failure to find replacement for Iranian oil, happens simultaneously with each other , the result will be terrible .
  10. lack of suitable weapons: Israel is one of Iran's archenemies and its background proved it wouldn't stand middle east countries procurement of nuclear arsenals (to conserve its superior position), but problems with Iran are long distance between two countries and lack of long range bombers and laser guided and bunker buster bombs , and recently Iranian military achievement of using modern air defense systems make it so risky for every unilateral preemptive attack on Iran by Israel. 

Not to leave unsaid each attack on Iran will destroy Iranians efforts to have freedom and democratic government and will lead to more violence in the region, so it is a great advice for all those who make decisions, to reconsider their minds, and about their own people.

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